Predictions Of Global Mean Temperatures & IPCC Projections
نویسنده
چکیده
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that human emission of CO2 causes catastrophic global warming. When such extraordinary claim is made, every one with background in science has to look at the data and verify whether the claim is justified or not. In this article, a mathematical model was developed that agrees with observed Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA), and its prediction shows global cooling by about 0.42 deg C until 2030. Also, comparison of observed increase in human emission of CO2 with increase in GMTA during the 20 century shows no relationship between the two. As a result, the claim by the IPCC of climate catastrophe is not supported by the data.
منابع مشابه
Confronting Models with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Data: A Statistical Comparison of Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer Radiance Spectra and Global Climate Models Output
Forecasts of decadal climate change at subcontinental scales made by global climate models (GCMs) are currently too uncertain to be useful to policy makers. For example, the forecasts of global mean surface temperatures in the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B scenario show an agreement across 15 models of about ±0.75 K in warming of...
متن کاملRecent climate observations compared to projections.
We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, i...
متن کاملEvidence-based Forecasting for Climate Change Policies
In order to meet policy makers’ need for climate forecasts, this paper extends the application of evidence-based forecasting of global mean temperatures. The extensions utilize more years of global mean temperature data and 34 years of better data. Forecasts from the no-trend model were compared with forecasts from six moresophisticated methods that take account of more than the most recent dat...
متن کاملComparing climate projections to observations up to 2011
We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variabil...
متن کاملHow do we improve crop production in a warming world?
Future agricultural production will encounter multifaceted challenges from global climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere at unprecedented rates, causing increased radiative forcing (Le Quéré et al., 2009; Shindell et al., 2009). Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase annual temperatures by 2.5 C to 4.3 C in important cro...
متن کامل